After a long nap...

I'm going to have to change some of my preseason predictions. I'm not so sure about Seattle anymore, for a few reasons. I've changed my mind about the Cubs, and something in the AL Central just doesn't feel right. One of those three teams is going to fall flat fast and hard. I just don't know who. I'm sticking with my thoughts on the Nats, with room for a real step forward.

Well, I'm still sticking with my AL East picks. I think the Rays can just come out swinging this year, and I'm looking forward to it.

Over in the NL, the Braves might end up better than I thought. Heyward is supposed to be The Thing, and really, more of these similar stories have succeeded than failed. I speak of other can't misses like Evan Longoria and Joe Mauer. I've been subject to a lot of the Stephen Strausburg kool-aid here in the District, and I've let his numbers do the talking. They would indicate he's going to be close to the predictions. He's got the stuff, now can he learn where/how to throw it? The Mets...I'm not impressed with Jason Bay and David Wright's gotta hit the ball out of the park. The Phillies look impressive even without a closer. They have the best 1stman in the division, one of the 5 best players in MLB at second, J-Roll is an All-Star, Polanco is an upgrade over Felix, Ibanez still has something in left, Victorino is just fun and Jason Worth wasn't a fluke last year. Though I don't think the pitching staff as a whole is dominant, it certainly is top heavy: Halladay is Halladay, Hamels is reportedly healthy and the lil' ones have some promise. But lil' ones have been known to disappoint, as well. Atlanta is better than I thought and is a wild card. As are the Marlins (I said last year they were over due and they underachieved. Be aware).

I'm least certain about the NL Central. Other than the Pirates (who knows what direction they're going) and the Astros (clearly going backward), any team could win that division. Or suck. Hard. The Brew Crew will beat you (I like Fielder and love Braun) but they have to, with a 'meh' inspiring rotation. St. Louis has the game's best player and a really nice back up (Pujols & Holliday) and yes, Wainwright and Carpenter dominated last year, but I know for a fact Chris Carpenter will get hurt. I don't know for how long, but he will be on the DL at some point. He always is. The Cardinals have no closer (cause Franklin won't be gettin' the job done). Some of their better players (like catcher Yadir Molina) are already ouchie. And they don't really have back ups. Not good, but they are a talented team.

The Cubs will bounce back, I just don't know how much. Or, given that they have NO ONE in the bullpen, they could suck suck suck to high heaven. I know that 2011 will be a disaster, but 2010 could just be an epic failure. They'll def be better without Milton Bradley, however. The Reds need for the manager not to be Dusty Baker, which is hard for him, given that the manager of the Reds is Dusty Baker. He has a history of burning out young, talented arms and that's exactly what he's got now in Cinncy. I'd pick them if they had a different manager.

I'm good with what I said about the NL West. The AL West, however...ugh. Milton won't be the sole cause of Seattle's failure, but he will play a role. Lee is hurt (and facing a suspension for some beanball stupidity), they still don't have a rotation other than Lee and King Hernandez. They have 2 of the best table setters in baseball, but who is going to get Ichiro and Figgens from 2nd and 3rd to home? Bradley (even when behaving) isn't a power hitter. Never has been. Griffey is done. Kotchman's OPS is only in the .770s. Lopez can bop a bit, but he's your only real power threat. And then, of course, there's the problem of Milton's personality.

Look, Milton, I get it. Wrigley smells and is cramped. But dude, seriously, you're not Kanye West. Kanye, though a jackass, isn't kicked out of places over and over and over. And actually does make really good music. You've played for 8 teams in 11 years, 7 in the last 8. That's beyond insane. You have the lives of a cat. And stop accusing Cubs fans of being racist. If you say you got racist hate mail, then you give it to the PR department of that team immediately. You keep a copy and give it to the local press if the team does nothing. You have proof. The Mariners a few years ago had a fractured clubhouse, and they brought in Griffey to help fix it. He fixed Ichiro, but Ichiro is a transcendent talent who TAKES THE FIELD EVERYDAY. Milton is always broken. So it's a vicious cycle. And it's already started in Seattle: two games in a row, Milton Bradley was ejected from a spring training game. His manager defended him. But here we go again...

Any of the four teams in the West could win. Texas, like the Braves, will be better than I thought. I forgot how much better they were last year, and their pitching is getting towards average, which for them is amazing. A lot of injury questions (Kinsler, Hamilton, Gurerro, etc) and some other legal questions (Hamilton, the manager Ron Washington [hint: sniff sniff]), but a talented team that picks the ball defensively. A's are always a sleeper team. Even in years when they end up sucking. Angels are still headed by the brilliant Mike Socia and have smart run front office.

And there's still a lot to like about Seattle. Ugh...I'll play it safe, and change officially from the Mariners to the Angels.

And now....the meat and potatoes. My favorite division: The AL Central.

Uuuuuhhhhhhggggggghhh......

Mediocre, middling, muddled, bad and worse.

That's the adjectives, in order, used to describe each of the five teams in this division. Minnesota is mediocre, Chicago is middling, the Tigers are muddled, the Indians are bad and the Royals are worse. You've gotta love the Twins top half of the order. Span, Hudson, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel/Thome/ is almost elite level. You've got some holes, and not having Joe Nathan isn't a death blow, but does hurt and has a psychological effect. And even if Liriano succeeds in the role as a closer, you've still created a hole in your already thin and mild rotation. And there is an immeasurable mental loss. Nathan was particularly good against the division.

Chicago...one can see good to great things from the starting rotation, and even a lot of promise in the bullpen is people stay in one piece. That starting 4-some (Peavy, Buerhle, Floyd & Danks CAN match up with anyone's in baseball) and the bullpen guys all have decent track records. Could be something really special. And it needs to be, because the line up (and in particular Ozzie's new bizarre philosophies) is uninspiring at best. Carlos Quentin should be closer to his MVP form, Gordon Beckham should put up some very nice numbers, Alex Rios can't possibly be as bad as he was, and Konerko is Konerko, but I hate Juan Pierre. And this DH stuff is just a joke. It's absolute baseball stupidity. Andruw Jones is your DH, or at least he damn well better be until you can trade for an honest-to-goodness thumper (gimmie big ol' Adam Dunn out there as the DH swattin' away). Mark Kotsay as your three hitter? Omar Vizquel as lead-off AND DH?!!? Are you insane? If this team stumbles (or rather can't score runs) then Ozzie should be fired. And yes, I'm an Ozzie guy (I follow him on twitter) and I like Ozzie and think he's a good manager, but this is just stupid. This division is winable, and with that starting staff, thoughts of the World Series aren't crazy. But you are giving up runs with this offensive structure in this division and in this league. You play in an incredible hitters park. Use it. Your 'grindy, scrappy' 2005 team still hit over 200 home runs. You gotta bop the ball, Ozzie.

Detroit will either be really good or really bad. And if they're really good, I think they'll be really good for the first half and then slowly sink in the 2nd. Cabrera is the real deal and the old guys still have some life in 'em, but there will be a slow down in the second half. Verlander is the best individual starter in the division though (doesn't mean he can't be beat, either).

Cleveland is bad and Kansas City....what are you doing? You have totally abandoned the concept of on base percentage with this lineup. Podsednik, Gordon, Kendall, Ankiel, Guillen, Getz, Dejesus, Anderson, Fields....what is the matter with you? Zack Grienke, oh that's somethin' fierce and the closer is legit too. But there's nothing in between but bad road.

I think I'm going to go with the Twins, and I hate myself for it. Forgive me...