AL West

And now, with no fanfare, we go out west. And no one wants to, really. I love baseball (clearly) but the way I see it, no one really truly likes any of the 4 teams that comprise the American League West. Let's be honest: every other division in the game has its diehards nationally (we're going to stick in the AL for now): the east, obviously has the New York Yankees (hands down the most recognizable American Sports symbol in the world), the Boston Red Sox and I'll even throw in the Baltimore Orioles into the conversation (come on, everyone in the 1990s LOVED Cal Ripken Jr). The Tigers, Indians and White Sox all have a limited national following for the Central division. Anyone who knows anything about baseball knows the names Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan (the J-Headed Monster) in Minneapolis (only 3 more White Sox games ever in the Meterodome...thank God).

But out in the West...there's nothing. Raise your hand, when's the last time you saw someone in, say, Boston wearing an Oakland A's cap? They've (the A's) been in three different markets, and still barely have fans (Philly, Kansas City and Oakland). The Angels seem to exist only to compete with the Dodgers (by the way, who in the name of all that is holy thought it was a good idea to make the primary colors for Los Angeles' two baseball teams BLUE and RED?!!!? Really now? Really! I'll give the Dodgers a pass since they're about 126 years old, but the Angels marketing teams deserves a sharp stick in the eye for that one). {Blue and red being the colors of LA's two most famous gangs, the Bloods and the Crips, if you didn't know} The Rangers? Please...the fact that George W. Bush was their President of Baseball Operations is enough to prevent a fan base, even in Texas (where football DOMINATES all else anyways). The Mariners have had two first-ballot-best-players-to-ever-play in the last 20 years (Griffey Jr and Ichiro) but no one cares. I'm sorry, they just don't (and if you don't believe me, look up T.V. ratings. Numbers don't lie, provided your looking at the right numbers).

So, you've got a division no one really is that interested in, and for the last 5 years, it's also been a boring division. 2004: The Angels win it. 2005: The Angels win it. 2006: The A's win it (barely). 2007: The Angels win it. 2008: The Angels win it (by a lot). 2009: The Angels are in 1st. That's not going to change. I could just stop right there, the Angels are going to win that division, but you (I hope) expect a little more for me.

The Rangers have kept their heads above water much better than I thought they would so far this year, given that they have the same problems they always do. They will crush the ball, repeatedly, but they have to, because their pitching is just...puke inspiring (I really wish I could come up with a better adjective than that, but really, I think it works quite well). The Rangers have not had pitching really ever in my baseball lifetime (although I hear that Nolan Ryan guy was a thing...even though he only played 5 years at the end), although they are supposed to have pitching prospects in their pipeline that are good. I rather doubt it, given the way the ball plays at the Ballpark at Arlington and the fact that Jon Daniels, their GM is, in my mind anyway, an idiot. This is a guy who traded away Jon Danks to the White Sox for Brandon McCarthy (who is always always always broken) and Edinson Volquez for Josh Hamilton (obviously a great story of redemption, but the last thing the Rangers needed in 2007 was a HITTER). Ian Kinsler is a really fun player to watch (and has made both of my good fantasy teams good the last 2 years), Michael Young is that rare under-rated yet over-rated player (I'll explain that one in a bit) and the aforementioned Hamilton is a treat but that pitching 'thing' they got there is something bad.

The Mariners...bleh. Ken Griffey Jr. cannot play anymore. His return is a wonderful story, but he can't play. His bat is slow, he's late on fastballs he used to kill, can barely catch up to a slow breaking ball and, frankly, was never as good a fielder as he was made out to be. I will stand by that...yes he made the highlight real and deservedly so. However, by the metrics, Ken Griffey Jr was an average FIELDING center fielder. Love the guy, helped make my baseball season last year (see Game 163), but not as good a defender as people think. Truly. Felix Hernandez is 23 and has a live arm, but can't do it alone. I don't buy into Jarrod Washburn, other than this being a career year. Good for him, he'll probably get traded to the Yankees and get some postseason baseball, but career year. That's my bet.

I hate the A's. I do. I just don't like them; I think Billy Beane is an arrogant jerk (who did, however, help write a very interesting baseball book, Moneyball) that really hasn't ever won any hardware. Yes, he took the 2nd lowest payroll in the game to the postseason twice earlier this decade, but please, show me the American League Pennants and World Series rings he has. Don't worry, I'll wait. Oh, right...the A's have only gotten to 1 ALCS this decade. And promptly got waxed by the 2006 Tigers when they did. Oops. My bad. I did pick the A's to win the division this year at the start of the season, which is one more piece of evidence that I am a baseball idiot. I though the A's were due for one of their good years, but I did think Matt Holliday would regress a bit from his Colorado high days and that Jason Giambi was mistake. I thought the Angels would regress from their 100-win season last year, but I was wrong. About both. The A's suck, the Mariners are mediocre, the Rangers have no pitching and the Angels are the class of a division that no one cares about and will (once again) lose in the first round of the playoffs to the Boston Red Sox or the New York Yankees. Really, no numbers are necessary to go over a division that isn't compellingly competitive (like the AL East) or at least competitive (the AL Central)and that people aren't watching anyway.

We next move to the National League, going back East to the Phillies and the other piles of 'meh' out there and move across the country till we end up West again. Peace and love, peace and love. Thanks for reading.

Perfection

I won't make this near as long as last nights post (and I gotta stop using 'frankly' every other sentence, lol), but something happened today that deserves mention.

Mark Buerhle performed the greatest achievement in all of baseball. Without doubt. An amazing performance, kudos to him and the rest of the White Sox (and I'm going to stop talking trash about Dewayne Wise for at least...1 week) and kudos to the Tampa Bay Rays, who stood and applauded Buerhle after the game was over. A class organization, truly.

I hope I'm deep in the cold, cold ground before I ever see Mark Buehrle wearing any uniform other than that of the Chicago White Sox.

Congratulations, Mark.

I lied! AL Central now up!

I promise not to personalize this too much, but I'm going to write this now as I'm a lil' hopped up on coffee (coffee for a date apparently never means sex). I know I said in my AL East blog I was going to do the NL Central now, but I changed my mind and will stay in the American League (and tonight, July 22nd, we also learned that the Rays are not as fundamentally sound as they were last year (I'm looking at you, Jason Bartlett and B.J. Upton)).

Speaking as a White Sox fan, I despise the Minnesota Twins. Everything about them. I hate Kerby Puckett, I hate Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and I especially, especially, especially hate Nick Punto (with all the silly 'grindyness' and sliding into first base). Having gone to college in Michigan (just a small, central Michigan school with a rather well known football team and colors of Maize & Blue), I know that Tiger fans feel much the same way (although they have as much White Sox loathing as Cubs fans). However, as said White Sox fan, I also fear the Minnesota Twins. But only in the Metrodome because the Twins don't play well on the road. Every year, the Twins seem to be in the race for the division in August, dinking and dunking their way to a division title. But, what gets lost in the labels of 'small ball' and 'Twins ball' is the fact that they have 2 absolute superstars in the center of their lineup (and anyone who says that the Twins don't win with superstar players is a brain-dead baseball bonehead) who crush the ball out of the ballpark. I speak, of course of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau (and if 2 batting titles, one MVP trophy and a home-run derby championship aren't superstar credentials, then I'm giving up following baseball). Jason Kubel can be thrown in there as a guy who can hit with power (same with Joe Crede), but I really want to stop hearing about the Twins being a 'small ball' team. What the Twins do not have is starting pitching. Or relief pitching, save for one guy, Joe Nathan. He's the other reason the Twins are perennial contenders, they only play 8 inning games with Nathan as the closer (and boy oh boy, is that guy good at his job). The Twins, just 20-27 on the road, most certainly have the easiest remaining schedule (only 33 of their next 70+ games are against teams above .500), but that doesn't mean a damn thing, as the Twins late in the season can't seem to get the job done (see the glorious choke job of 2008 against the Royals when they only had to win 1 game to put the White Sox out of their misery). And see also the pasting the Oakland Athletics just gave them...in Oakland (Oakland? Oakland! Seriously? You got pounded by their sorry baseball behinds?! What? What?!!) So, no pitching, two really really really good hitters and a slightly soft schedule all add up to...I'm going to go with a straight 2nd place finish, because they'll have to outslug their opponents and are just an average baseball team, but one with a great fielding percentage (2nd overall in the AL). [I'm a big believer in defense, which is part of the reason this division is so competitive].

The Detroit Tigers have a phenomenal starter in Justin Verlander and a phenomenal hitter in Miguel Cabrera and a really nice guy/good player in Curtis Granderson and the underrated Placido Polanco but little else. No bullpen (we'll get to that), bad starters other than Verlander and Edwin Jackson, but he's an interesting case (and for all of my buddies who are Tigers fans, I'm about to shred him, so bear with me. Still love you though, guys).

For 2009, Edwin Jackson has a BABIP of .244. (For those not yet familiar, BABIP is batting average of balls in play, a statistic which measure luck, for either hitters or batters. It averages out to .290, so a pitcher under that has been lucky, a hitter under it unlucky and vice versa). A .244 BABIP says that Jackson's due to get hit hard (statistically, BABIP's even out over a season)in the second half, and his career era of 4.57 isn't pretty either if you love the old English 'D' for your baseball team. Even more bad news: the Minnesota Twins bat .314 against Jackson in his career, the Chicago White Sox (American's new team, in case you didn't see the All-Star Game) even better at .324. For the other real good Detroit starter, 2008 was a fluke year for Justin Verlander. That guy is legit good, top of the rotation good. But his BABIP against the White Sox is .266. However, he's given up 19 homer runs against them, along with 14 doubles and 9 losses. Quite simply, the White Sox beat him to death. Both on the South Side and in Detroit. But the BABIP stat indicates that not only do the White Sox absolutely tattoo him, but they've UNDER-PERFORMED against him. Statistically speaking, they should have hit him harder than they have in his career, and he's got a career 5.44 ERA against them. OUCH! But, in his defense, Verlander is an amazing pitcher against everybody else, including the Twins (well, the Indians have hit him too, but I won't believe in the Indians ever again. Seriously, you got a 22-3 record from Cliff Lee in 2008 (with RIDICULOUS peripheral stats, like BABIP, WHIP, BB/K's, K's/9, etc) and were still only .500. Cleveland Rocks? Oh, puh-lease).

As for the Tigers line up, there's Miguel Cabrera and everybody else. Now, Polanco is a very underrated player (but has no pop), and Granderson is really fun to watch (and a really nice guy, by all accounts too), but you make your pitches to him, and he's an easy out. So, frankly is Brandon Inge for all the love he gets in Michigan (real good defender, but hits mistakes. That's it). Frankly, there is no reason to pitch to Miguel Cabrera. Seriously, walk his rear end every time. Maggs can't hit anymore (and he left his power in Chicago in 2004 when Willie Harris took out his knee), Carlos Guillen is broken, Gerald Laird is back to being bad at hitting (which happens to him when he's a full time catcher), and Tiger fans will tell you they want a hitter. But it won't happen, given the payroll constraints of that franchise, particularly in that city. The signing of Adam Everett was really nice though. The Tigers fielding percentage is 4th in the AL which will keep them around (along with their top two starters), but their bullpen is...lacking, to be kind. Fernando Rodney will not last [not with a .274 BABIP, which is already starting to even out this 2nd half and an era of 3.82], and Brandon Lyon is bad. No statistics are needed for that one, he's just bad at baseball. I think the Tigers will end up 3rd in the division, but not by much (say, a game or 3 between 1st and 3rd place). That leaves us with...

The Chicago White Sox. They are, by no means, perfect. They don't have the best starting pitcher in the division (that would be Verlander), but they do have the 2nd (that would be Mark Buerhle). They don't have the best hitter (Mauer, Cabrera and Morneau, Victor Martinez of the Indians and then Placido Polanco) in the division, but they have a larger collection of good hitters (Dye, Konerko, Thome, Pierzynski and Quentin [his 2008 wasn't a fluke, but more Q!perman in a bit]) than anyone else in the division. They don't have the best closer (Nathan) but do have the overall best bullpen (although Scott Linebrink and his career 3.72 second half-era and straight-as-a-string-fastball BLOW and should be put to sleep). They have an incredibly underrated manager in Ozzie Guillen. Ozzie is, without debate, one of the 5 best managers in the AL. Let's see...4 years...2 division titles, 1 world series championship, consistently outperforming computer-model projections for his team (exception being 2007, when he got career worst years from Buerhle, Dye, his bullpen and Pierzynski)...oh yea, and being really, really funny and honest. And, for the first time in my lifetime, the White Sox actually have a farm system they can go down to and get guys from for reinforcements (see Torres, Carlos and Beckham, Gordon [who has the best hair in White Sox history. I have a serious man-crush on Gordon Beckham]). The starting staff has been very good since June as well, mostly on the backs on Gavin Floyd's turn around (and his sparkling sub 2.5 era since June) and Mark Buerhle. I do not expect Jose Contreras to keep up his post-Triple-A performance, after all, he's 498753245092 years old (never trust what any Cuban birth certificate says).

What the White Sox do not do, do not have, and will not get, are play defense, a good defense and a good defense, respectively. They give teams 4 and 5 outs an inning far, far too much. Among 14 AL teams, the White Sox come in 12th in defensive efficiency. That's some bad medicine there, kids. And sending down Brian Anderson in order to make room for Carlos 'Q!perman' Quentin only compounds the problem, because you're putting Scott Podsedink in center field regularly. That retching sound is the SouthSide of the city of Chicago. Speaking of Pods, another reason I have a hard time believe in the White Sox is because of him. He's hit waaaay over his head this being picked up off the scrap heap by Kenny Williams. His BABIP this season is .335. OMG... .335. RIDICULOUSLY lucky in the batters box. That should come down, much like Jackson's should go up [but with baseball, one never knows, that's the fun. Jackson and Pods could stay this good all year, but looking at past performance, that likelihood is not promising]. If the White Sox could pick up the baseball, which they can't, then I'd say they'd run away with the division. But Minnesota and Detroit are just much much better at not giving the other team extra outs (and extra outs are a boon to the oppoenet, as the White Sox found out tonight, beating the Rays on 2 miscues by Bartlett and Upton. BYAH!!!)

I do think the White Sox will win the division, particularly if Q stays healthy. None of his stats from 2008 were out of line with his minor league performance, his 2008 BABIP was .278, his 2209 BABIP thus far is .214. His fb/gb ratio this year matches what he did last year, as does his hr/fb ratio, meaning that he's been unlucky and unhealthy. Not a good thing for Detroit and Minnesota. Statistical and anecdotal (based purely off of observations, which are notoriously flawed as all humans have an overwhelming tendency to see what they want in all things [I read that in a book. Yes, I read books]) signs point to the White Sox in the Al Central this year, but again, it's baseball. Anything can (and often does) happen. Either way, it's going to be a fun race in this division (sit back, relax and strap it down), but who ever wins will get waxed by the AL East winner in the ALDS (again) this year. But hey, just get into the playoffs and anything can happen (see 2006 Cardinals). That wasn't a shot at the Tigers, by the way, just a reference point.

I'm sure there are things I've missed, but I'm off to bed. Peace and love, peace and love, AL West up next.

1st real post.

I’m not planning on wasting anyone’s time, so I’m just going to jump on into baseball chatter. Thanks for reading, and here we go!

It's clear to anyone with a pulse that the American League East is the best division in baseball. At the beginning of the year, I made my division picks as follows:

AL: Rays (East) Red Sox (Wild Card) White Sox (Central) A's (West)
NL: Marlins (East) Phillies (Wild Card) Cubs (Central) Dodgers (West)

Now, clearly, I look like a darn fool given what I said about the AL West and my pick of the Marlins to win the NL East (I've thought they were overdo for one of their crazy get-to-the-world-series-than-blow-up-the-team runs (see '97 and '03). I still think the Rays are in a position to make the playoffs, and the Red Sox are...well, the Red Sox (like it or not, Red Sox Nation, you guys are the Yankees of this decade). Despite the additions made in the off-season (Tiexiera, Burnett and Sabathia [man, I would love a slice of the money those fellas got]), I didn't believe the Yankees would make the playoffs and despite how they have played thus far (including the performances of Coke, Huges and Aceves in the bullpen), think that the Rays will see another October (they (the Yanks) have got a tough September schedule, with trips to LA, Seattle, an always intense Boston match-up and a run with KC (who always SEEM to play well at the end of the season)). What works against the Yankees, in my baseball world anyways, is their defense. Jeter and Cano are not good defensive players. And as a team, the Yankees are just 7^th in AL in fielding percentage, and are 7^th overall in errors committed. Those are not good numbers considering the Red Sox rank 3^rd in fielding % (although the Rays are 9^th).

Tampa has been…well, just mediocre this year, frankly. Yeah, they hit the ball a very long way and will run you out of the ball park (even if it’s not their ballpark). I thought they’d win the East again, but they seem to have fallen into the same hole that the 06 White Sox and 07 Tigers did (meaning that for a team which in the previous season made in to the World Series (05 and 06, respectively), the pitching which got them to the post season has been mediocre and the hitting has been what’s carried them). They still have a series of games left with Boston and New York, so they could climb back into it, but it looks for now like it will be the Red Sox and Yankees in the playoffs (again…puke).

Boston has been the best team in Major League Baseball since 2003. 2 WS wins, 4 ALCS appearances, enough All-Stars to make any non-Red Sox fan puke, fans in every corner of the globe and the best General Manager. All of that was very difficult for me to type, I hate the Red Sox, but it's true. They seem to have the surest shot at the playoffs in the AL, but they have a tough August plan, with a 5-game trip to Tampa and New York, a trip to Texas and a set of 5 games in Fenway against the Yankees and White Sox (who are, despite my fandom, a very underrated team). They aren't bothered by players who get injured, they just call up a guy, plug him in and keep chugging right along. I hate to say it, but they look (again) like your WS favorites (they will kill the Dodgers (who cannot play the AL with a 29-52 record in inter-league play since 2005) or Phillies (who have no starting pitching, seeing as Cole Hamels is mediocre this year) should they play them).

Speaking of the Cubs: A quick note/preview of my next posting, which will be about the NL Central (I’m going to go in order of divisions I think are the most competitive). The Cubs are still in a great position, despite what everyone in Chicago is writing at both the Tribune and the Sun-Times. Aramis Ramirez has missed most of the season and still isn't healthy. Milton Bradley is having, statistically, the worst year of his career. So is Soriano, and the pitching staff can't stay healthy. All of these problems, and they're still at .500 and only 3 games behind the Cardinals. And have some 70 games left to play. And the NL Central…well, for want of a better term, it sucks.

In the words of my favorite Beatle [because of the whole being-the-conductor-thing on Shining Time Station], peace and love, peace and love.

Here we go...And some background...

I love the game of baseball. I have had a strong affair with it for the last 4 years. Before that, it was a little crush, but in 2005, my love exploded. 2005 was the year the Chicago White Sox won the World Series.
Now, I will not abide by accusations of band-wagon hopping; I was a White Sox fan well before that magical summer, I just did not have the same appreciation for the game before that summer that I have had ever since. Yes, without question, the White Sox are my favorite team. I truly (and lamely) am in a better mood when they win than when they lose, regardless of what else has happened to me. I like to think that I'm a smarter baseball fan the more I watch the game, and have helped pass my time this summer by reading several books that examine the game and its evolving statistics (Moneyball is, for those interested, a great way to start, even though Billy Beane (despite his baseball acumen) is completely arrogant).
Baseball is a game unlike any other in the world. It's numbers (162, 755 [more on that one later], 2632) all mean something to fans all around the country (and increasingly, the world). It both proceeds and follows the history of the United States [a quick note, all statistics are courtesy of either baseballreference.com or mlb.com, unless otherwise noted]. And baseball fandom is not a uniquly Untied States phenomenon. Baseball passion runs hot in Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, Japan, China, Canada and Mexico. I hope that my love for the game, and the love that millions of people around the world have, will come through in this blog, but I will not be a meatball fan. While I don't totally (emphasis on 'totally') discount the idea of momentum and 'intangable' skills, as Vin Scully once said on WSCR's 670 The Score (a wonderful Chicago-area sports talk station), "Momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher."
Follow along, comment, argue, be passionate about your teams and favorite players, but a word of warning: I will NOT tolerate any homophobia in comments or responses. Too easy is it to resort to the "You have that opinion and that makes you gay!" (read: stupid) response. In the words of Mike Singletary: cannot play with 'em. Can't do it. I won't put up with homophobia, so leave it at home (or for that matter racism, etc). Other than that, hope that I do this well and that you enjoy!