2011 Season Preview Part 1

We are less than a week away from the 2nd most beautiful day of the year: Pitcher and Catchers reporting. Yes. Going to start with the NL East this week.
I think I’ve seen enough roster turnover to start making my predications for the coming year (as I’ve already sort of done and as last year’s column shows, I’ve got an okay track record. I admit to underselling the Reds (a tad) and the Rangers, but that’s okay. I said the Giants would win and raise your hand if you thought the Reds would even be good. I was (regrettably) correct about the White Sox, Twins and the mess called the AL East. I don’t know what I was thinking when I picked the Cubs to win the division, though.

AL East: Boston
AL Central: Chicago
AL West: Oakland
AL Wildcard: Yankees

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL Wildcard: Rockies


In the National League East, everyone knows what the Phillies have done. They signed Cliff Lee, who dominated the New York Yankees for them in the 2009 World Series and was yet again very good for the 2010 Texas Rangers in the World Series. While both the Yankees and Rangers offered Lee more money and more years (okay, one more year) than the Phillies, Lee wanted to go someplace that he loved and felt had the best chance to win (only difference between him and LeBron is that he didn’t do it on national TV).
The Phillies starting rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton (at least, that’s how they should line up) are the best in the national league. But two are injury concerns while also being inconsistent and if rest of the team on the field is injury prone (Polanco, Utley, Howard, Rollins and Ibanez have all spent time on the DL in the past two season). Every one of the most important players on the team is the wrong side of 30 [that is, over it]. Don’t get me wrong – I like the Phillies and think they have a really good roster. On paper. But I also have them as Team A on my list of ‘most likely to crash and burn’ list (Team B would be the Boston Red Sox for much the same reason – injury potential).
The Atlanta Braves stepped up this offseason and traded for Marlins slugger Dan Uggla who will make the team better with his bat. He’s an awful defensive player (that was him in the 2008 All-Star Game), but for now his offense is enough to help the Braves who can count on growth from another batch of home grown starters and wunderkid Jason Heyward (on the short list of, “Oh my God!!!” players in baseball) [as you can tell, I have a lot of baseball lists….]. Freddy Gonzalez is no Bobby Cox, but since Cox is one of the greatest managers to ever walk the face of the earth, he doesn’t need to be. The Braves improved their roster from a year ago when they made the playoffs over the Padres and should enjoy another wildcard this year.
I’ve been predicting a Marlins run for the last 4 years now, and am going to stop. Hanley Ramirez is on the same list as Heyward, Mike Stanton was rumored to be talked about in exchange for White Sox Manager Ozzie Guillen and Gabby Sanchez is probably for real. But no, I refuse to let the Marlins be a cruel mistress to me again. They are a talented roster with a cheap-as-Scrooge owner and a shrewd front office. I’ll give them 88-90 wins, but no playoffs. The Mets still have David Wright, so they have a pretty face on the field. But oh boy….is there a whole lot of badness in Queens otherwise. Johan is breaky, there’s no one else in the rotation (the Chris Young signing isn’t bad though) and the bullpen is a mess. Plus, you know, they are the Mets. So, good luck with that.
As for my actual favorite NL team, things are looking up. Yes, they gave out the winter’s worst contract (7 years, $126 million for Jayson Werth) after totally screwing up at the trade deadline and not trading Adam Dunn, but the future in Washington looks good (think 2012/13). Bryce Harper will be up and slugging at a corner outfield spot (I’m thinking left), Stephen Strasberg (who was just damn brilliant before his arm got hurt) will be back, plus they’ll have other top draft picks coming out of the pipeline and a healthy Ryan Zimmerman (criminally underrated) and Jayson Werth (a really, really good player, just not for 7 years and $126 million) around. Just won’t be a pretty 2011. But get ready America….the Nationals wont’ be a laughing stock forever.

1st real post.

I’m not planning on wasting anyone’s time, so I’m just going to jump on into baseball chatter. Thanks for reading, and here we go!

It's clear to anyone with a pulse that the American League East is the best division in baseball. At the beginning of the year, I made my division picks as follows:

AL: Rays (East) Red Sox (Wild Card) White Sox (Central) A's (West)
NL: Marlins (East) Phillies (Wild Card) Cubs (Central) Dodgers (West)

Now, clearly, I look like a darn fool given what I said about the AL West and my pick of the Marlins to win the NL East (I've thought they were overdo for one of their crazy get-to-the-world-series-than-blow-up-the-team runs (see '97 and '03). I still think the Rays are in a position to make the playoffs, and the Red Sox are...well, the Red Sox (like it or not, Red Sox Nation, you guys are the Yankees of this decade). Despite the additions made in the off-season (Tiexiera, Burnett and Sabathia [man, I would love a slice of the money those fellas got]), I didn't believe the Yankees would make the playoffs and despite how they have played thus far (including the performances of Coke, Huges and Aceves in the bullpen), think that the Rays will see another October (they (the Yanks) have got a tough September schedule, with trips to LA, Seattle, an always intense Boston match-up and a run with KC (who always SEEM to play well at the end of the season)). What works against the Yankees, in my baseball world anyways, is their defense. Jeter and Cano are not good defensive players. And as a team, the Yankees are just 7^th in AL in fielding percentage, and are 7^th overall in errors committed. Those are not good numbers considering the Red Sox rank 3^rd in fielding % (although the Rays are 9^th).

Tampa has been…well, just mediocre this year, frankly. Yeah, they hit the ball a very long way and will run you out of the ball park (even if it’s not their ballpark). I thought they’d win the East again, but they seem to have fallen into the same hole that the 06 White Sox and 07 Tigers did (meaning that for a team which in the previous season made in to the World Series (05 and 06, respectively), the pitching which got them to the post season has been mediocre and the hitting has been what’s carried them). They still have a series of games left with Boston and New York, so they could climb back into it, but it looks for now like it will be the Red Sox and Yankees in the playoffs (again…puke).

Boston has been the best team in Major League Baseball since 2003. 2 WS wins, 4 ALCS appearances, enough All-Stars to make any non-Red Sox fan puke, fans in every corner of the globe and the best General Manager. All of that was very difficult for me to type, I hate the Red Sox, but it's true. They seem to have the surest shot at the playoffs in the AL, but they have a tough August plan, with a 5-game trip to Tampa and New York, a trip to Texas and a set of 5 games in Fenway against the Yankees and White Sox (who are, despite my fandom, a very underrated team). They aren't bothered by players who get injured, they just call up a guy, plug him in and keep chugging right along. I hate to say it, but they look (again) like your WS favorites (they will kill the Dodgers (who cannot play the AL with a 29-52 record in inter-league play since 2005) or Phillies (who have no starting pitching, seeing as Cole Hamels is mediocre this year) should they play them).

Speaking of the Cubs: A quick note/preview of my next posting, which will be about the NL Central (I’m going to go in order of divisions I think are the most competitive). The Cubs are still in a great position, despite what everyone in Chicago is writing at both the Tribune and the Sun-Times. Aramis Ramirez has missed most of the season and still isn't healthy. Milton Bradley is having, statistically, the worst year of his career. So is Soriano, and the pitching staff can't stay healthy. All of these problems, and they're still at .500 and only 3 games behind the Cardinals. And have some 70 games left to play. And the NL Central…well, for want of a better term, it sucks.

In the words of my favorite Beatle [because of the whole being-the-conductor-thing on Shining Time Station], peace and love, peace and love.