2011 Season Preview Part 1

We are less than a week away from the 2nd most beautiful day of the year: Pitcher and Catchers reporting. Yes. Going to start with the NL East this week.
I think I’ve seen enough roster turnover to start making my predications for the coming year (as I’ve already sort of done and as last year’s column shows, I’ve got an okay track record. I admit to underselling the Reds (a tad) and the Rangers, but that’s okay. I said the Giants would win and raise your hand if you thought the Reds would even be good. I was (regrettably) correct about the White Sox, Twins and the mess called the AL East. I don’t know what I was thinking when I picked the Cubs to win the division, though.

AL East: Boston
AL Central: Chicago
AL West: Oakland
AL Wildcard: Yankees

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL Wildcard: Rockies


In the National League East, everyone knows what the Phillies have done. They signed Cliff Lee, who dominated the New York Yankees for them in the 2009 World Series and was yet again very good for the 2010 Texas Rangers in the World Series. While both the Yankees and Rangers offered Lee more money and more years (okay, one more year) than the Phillies, Lee wanted to go someplace that he loved and felt had the best chance to win (only difference between him and LeBron is that he didn’t do it on national TV).
The Phillies starting rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton (at least, that’s how they should line up) are the best in the national league. But two are injury concerns while also being inconsistent and if rest of the team on the field is injury prone (Polanco, Utley, Howard, Rollins and Ibanez have all spent time on the DL in the past two season). Every one of the most important players on the team is the wrong side of 30 [that is, over it]. Don’t get me wrong – I like the Phillies and think they have a really good roster. On paper. But I also have them as Team A on my list of ‘most likely to crash and burn’ list (Team B would be the Boston Red Sox for much the same reason – injury potential).
The Atlanta Braves stepped up this offseason and traded for Marlins slugger Dan Uggla who will make the team better with his bat. He’s an awful defensive player (that was him in the 2008 All-Star Game), but for now his offense is enough to help the Braves who can count on growth from another batch of home grown starters and wunderkid Jason Heyward (on the short list of, “Oh my God!!!” players in baseball) [as you can tell, I have a lot of baseball lists….]. Freddy Gonzalez is no Bobby Cox, but since Cox is one of the greatest managers to ever walk the face of the earth, he doesn’t need to be. The Braves improved their roster from a year ago when they made the playoffs over the Padres and should enjoy another wildcard this year.
I’ve been predicting a Marlins run for the last 4 years now, and am going to stop. Hanley Ramirez is on the same list as Heyward, Mike Stanton was rumored to be talked about in exchange for White Sox Manager Ozzie Guillen and Gabby Sanchez is probably for real. But no, I refuse to let the Marlins be a cruel mistress to me again. They are a talented roster with a cheap-as-Scrooge owner and a shrewd front office. I’ll give them 88-90 wins, but no playoffs. The Mets still have David Wright, so they have a pretty face on the field. But oh boy….is there a whole lot of badness in Queens otherwise. Johan is breaky, there’s no one else in the rotation (the Chris Young signing isn’t bad though) and the bullpen is a mess. Plus, you know, they are the Mets. So, good luck with that.
As for my actual favorite NL team, things are looking up. Yes, they gave out the winter’s worst contract (7 years, $126 million for Jayson Werth) after totally screwing up at the trade deadline and not trading Adam Dunn, but the future in Washington looks good (think 2012/13). Bryce Harper will be up and slugging at a corner outfield spot (I’m thinking left), Stephen Strasberg (who was just damn brilliant before his arm got hurt) will be back, plus they’ll have other top draft picks coming out of the pipeline and a healthy Ryan Zimmerman (criminally underrated) and Jayson Werth (a really, really good player, just not for 7 years and $126 million) around. Just won’t be a pretty 2011. But get ready America….the Nationals wont’ be a laughing stock forever.

Post Season Check

The job hunt becomes a real pain in the ass when one wants to do nothing but write a baseball blog. I refrained from posting this summer, because as a White Sox fan….Jesus H. Christ. It was either totally agony or total ecstasy. Mostly agony. Another year, another ball-kicking in August by the Twins (more on them later).
Looking back at my preseason predictions, I was actually pretty good. San Francisco proved me right, as did Philly, Minnesota, New York and Tampa Bay. I want credit for the Reds, because they did win despite their manager (and really, he’s an idiot), but deserve a firm rock kicking for my embrace of the Angels. Oh well. Good for Texas. They’re much easier to root for now that they aren’t chalk full of raging steroid monsters.
The Rangers have continued this impressive year by going in to the ALDS matchup with the aforementioned Rays and beating them. Soundly. And repeatedly. Tampa looks flat out over-matched, which is very difficult to do. The Rays, after all, won more games than any other team this year, in the hardest division in baseball, with no payroll and while being no hit twice. Yes, twice. And three times over the past calendar year (shout out to Mark Buerhle of the White Sox!!!!) I’m very impressed with the Rangers this year, but doubt they will be able to replicate this feat next year. Cliff Lee (acquired in a mid-season deal with the Mariners [YEESH!!!!]) is going to leave for a multi-year deal in free agency this October (first demand of his deal will be a no-trade clause), and over the past decade, there a ton of one team wonders (’01 Dbacks, ’02 Angels/Giants, ’03 Marlins, ’05 Astros, ’06 Tigers
Roy Halladay continues to just destroy the National League, as evidence by his no-hitter in Game 1 of the ALDS against Cincinnati (and really, Philly fans….I don’t know what good karma you put out there…but good God the last 4 years have just been unreal). Lincecum (Tim, The Freak) of the Giants was almost as good against the Atlanta Braves the other night, going the full nine and giving up just 2 hits. Unreal. I’d put my money on a Phillies-Giants NLCS, with the Phillies wining in 6 games, because the Braves just can’t hit and are giving up a hit too many.
I’m still LOL’ing at the Minnesota Twins inability to play the New York Yankees. Guess what, Twins fans? This is exactly what White Sox fans go through every August. Maybe you should try designing your team for October baseball and not just April-September baseball. I wish I could be a bigger man, but I just love the smell of Twins failure.
All in all, not a bad season of prediction by myself. I’ll take a Rangers birth in the WS this year, going up against the Phillies. I say…..Phillies pull it out in 6 games.

NL East

Sorry that it's taken a while, but I found out that I have something to do when I move to Washington D.C. so I've been packing and getting ready to move.

We now move to the inferior national league. I know, I know, I'm a snob, but the NL just can't compete with the AL. I truly believe it's time for the NL to get the DH rule. I don't have any problem with the DH, in fact I think that pitchers in the AL are the cream of the crop (one of the reasons I'm nervous about one Jake Peavy pitching for my White Stockings...gulp). The pitchers job is to throw the ball and prevent the other team from scoring. Not hit the ball (part of the reason the Cubs keep having injury problems with one crazy-ass Carlos Zambrano (and really, he is a psychopath)), and I personally love to watch guys like Roy Halladay, Mark Buerhle and AJ Burnett pitch against guys like Jim Thome, Kendry Moralas and Vlad Guerreo (although only Thome is a full-time DH) because it's the best pitchers against the best hitters (yes, Pujols, Adrien Gonzalez and David Wright are all better hitters than the guys I just listed and all play in the NL, but I think my point is the same).

All of this DH/American league line up talk is actually a perfect intro to the best team in the National League and the current World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. I saw them some into Wrigley Field the other day when they crushed the Cubs (and that's just a statement of fact, the Phillies beat the Cubbies to death (I was actually in Wrigleyville for a few of the games, watching from the really tall building that looks into Wrigley and could hear the beatin' taking place)), and that Phillies team is probably (along with the Yankees) the most complete team in baseball. Rollins, Utley, Howard, Ibanez, Worth, Fransisco and Ruiz....man, they can just pound the baseball all over the yard. Hammels and Lee atop the rotation...ouch. Really...just ouch is all that's necessary.

The Mets are broken. And overrated. Period. And that new CitiField sucks. It's dimensions are so large that poor David Wright (the best looking player in the Majors, hands down) can't hit for power anymore. The Mets have one of the 3 best starters in baseball (Johan got a raw deal in the NL Cy Young voting in 2008, he really did) and a great closer, but everything else great about their team is broken (Beltran and Delgado, and lesser parts like Jose Reyes (who would fall into the category of 'overrated')).

The Braves...HA! Take it from me, Atlanta. If you are counting on Javier Vasquez to step it up down the stretch and help carry you into the playoffs....don't. He'll just wet the bed like he did in Chicago, when he wasn't viewed by ANYONE as the best pitcher on his team, he was looked at only as a guy who the Sox needed to be better than usual for a few weeks and totally wet his bed. Enjoy that, ATL.

And for a town with a large Cuban population (Miami) I just don't get why the Marlins don't have a bigger fan base. Cuba is supposed to be this baseball hot bed, where everyone from that island loves the game. Why can't the marlins get even 20,000 people in that damn place? What's up in the MIA?! You're team is good this year too! I thought at the begining of the year the marlins were due for one of their go-crazy-win-the-World-Series-than-blow-up-the-team runs, but they signed Hanley Ramirez to a long term deal 2 seasons ago (the only number I remember is $70 million...man I wish I could play baseball....(sigh)) and clearly don't look like a playoff team, despite nice (really nice) seasons from Josh Johnson, Cody Ross and Dan Uggla (also in the category for best-looking player in the majors...he's got those eyes...just dreamy...(another, different kind of sigh)).

Well, gotta finish packing, I move to D.C. in 3 days!!!!













Oh......right...there is a baseball team in the Nation's capital (and my future home...did I mention I'm moving there?) They just happen to be the worst team in baseball. For one simple reason: pitching. The Nationals have none of it. The top of their batting order (1-5) I actually like a lot...Nejer Morgan can flat out fly (and has been a Godsend defensively since coming from Pittsburg), Christian Guzeman has developed into a pretty decent player, and one really can't help but like Ryan Zimmerman (who signed a long term deal to STAY in D.C....now that's loyalty). Adam Dunn, looking at stats like VORP and WARP is one of the best offensive players in all of baseball (I don't have them handy, and I apologize but again...moving my life halfway across the country...) the problem with Dunn is that he cannot field. Anything. At all. He can't even mow the lawn (why the Tigers didn't trade for him and make him their DH, like I suggested a few weeks ago....(cough)).

NL Central's a comin', and I actually have nice things to say about the Cubbies, who I STILL think will win that division.