Post Season Check

The job hunt becomes a real pain in the ass when one wants to do nothing but write a baseball blog. I refrained from posting this summer, because as a White Sox fan….Jesus H. Christ. It was either totally agony or total ecstasy. Mostly agony. Another year, another ball-kicking in August by the Twins (more on them later).
Looking back at my preseason predictions, I was actually pretty good. San Francisco proved me right, as did Philly, Minnesota, New York and Tampa Bay. I want credit for the Reds, because they did win despite their manager (and really, he’s an idiot), but deserve a firm rock kicking for my embrace of the Angels. Oh well. Good for Texas. They’re much easier to root for now that they aren’t chalk full of raging steroid monsters.
The Rangers have continued this impressive year by going in to the ALDS matchup with the aforementioned Rays and beating them. Soundly. And repeatedly. Tampa looks flat out over-matched, which is very difficult to do. The Rays, after all, won more games than any other team this year, in the hardest division in baseball, with no payroll and while being no hit twice. Yes, twice. And three times over the past calendar year (shout out to Mark Buerhle of the White Sox!!!!) I’m very impressed with the Rangers this year, but doubt they will be able to replicate this feat next year. Cliff Lee (acquired in a mid-season deal with the Mariners [YEESH!!!!]) is going to leave for a multi-year deal in free agency this October (first demand of his deal will be a no-trade clause), and over the past decade, there a ton of one team wonders (’01 Dbacks, ’02 Angels/Giants, ’03 Marlins, ’05 Astros, ’06 Tigers
Roy Halladay continues to just destroy the National League, as evidence by his no-hitter in Game 1 of the ALDS against Cincinnati (and really, Philly fans….I don’t know what good karma you put out there…but good God the last 4 years have just been unreal). Lincecum (Tim, The Freak) of the Giants was almost as good against the Atlanta Braves the other night, going the full nine and giving up just 2 hits. Unreal. I’d put my money on a Phillies-Giants NLCS, with the Phillies wining in 6 games, because the Braves just can’t hit and are giving up a hit too many.
I’m still LOL’ing at the Minnesota Twins inability to play the New York Yankees. Guess what, Twins fans? This is exactly what White Sox fans go through every August. Maybe you should try designing your team for October baseball and not just April-September baseball. I wish I could be a bigger man, but I just love the smell of Twins failure.
All in all, not a bad season of prediction by myself. I’ll take a Rangers birth in the WS this year, going up against the Phillies. I say…..Phillies pull it out in 6 games.

The Snap-Back

Obviously, I still love baseball, but I have come to a sharp realization.

What the White Sox need to do, in order to improve their baseball club, is to fire the best General Manager and Field Manager the club has ever had. Right now.

Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen both have to be replaced in order for the White Sox to change their history. Now, I like Kenny Williams and like Ozzie, both have been mainstays for the White Sox over the past 10 years, both were largely responsible for the '05 title and both are, like I said, the best that the Sox have ever had at their respective positions. But they both have to be fired.

With the failure of 2009 behind them, the 2010 White Sox set out to remake themselves into a more versatile ballclub. Out went Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome and Scott Podsednik. In came Juan Pierre, Mark Teahen and Andruw Jones. Bad was replaced with worse under a misguided notion that the White Sox were going to be a faster ballteam. Faster, yes. Better, no. The saga of the 2010 White Sox has been the feud between Kenny and Ozzie about one Jim Thome (or a larger disagreement about an everyday DH player).

Plain and simple: Ozzie was wrong about not wanting a slugger DH. Kenny was wrong to not put his footdown and force a DH on Ozzie.

Ozzie's job is to make requests and talk to the GM. It's the GM's job to give the manager what he needs, even if that differs from what he wants.

The 2010 White Sox have, as of tonight, lost 15 one run games. 15 one run games. Too many nights (tonight's game against the Tigers (Porcello vs. Jackson) being the perfect example).

Kenny's model of trading for damaged players with something to prove (Quentin, Thome), fallen prospects (Floyd, Danks, Jenks, Teahen) or just plan old (Andruw Jones, Ken Griffey Jr, Juan Pierre) only works until August. And then it invariably goes to pot. I know, I know, I know everyone's going to yell, "'05! '08!" Well, in '05 they did the exact same thing, pissed it all down their leg in August. It was only that the AL Central was so bad that year that the White Sox held the division lead. And 2008 is rather hollow, the fun of that season was beating the Twins in Game 163 (The Blackout). But you know what? Teams that suck play 163 games to determine division winners. Not good, World Series contending teams. Those teams (the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Rangers and usually Angels) all kick your ass in 162 games.

Also, Kenny's last phenomenal trade was the Danks-for-McCarthy swap in 2007. The list since then (Jake Peavy, Nick Swisher [TWICE!!!!!], Mark Teahen)....bad.

Ozzie's issues are well documented and need no further expounding here. The fundamental flaw in his baseball theory is that big, lumbering sluggers are bad. No, they are not. Get as many of them as you can, or at least have one.

Anyone who watched the MLBNetwork's, "The Club" knows that at minimum, Kenny and Ozzie love the White Sox and love Jerry Reinsdorf. That's fine. But you know what? I don't want my GM and my Manager to love my team. That's my job. I'm the one, as a fan, who loves them through and despite their glaring faults, weaknesses, ugly moments, stupidity, glory, pain, agony and ecstasy. That's the fans job, not the job of those in charge of the organization.

Kenny and Ozzie deserve to be fired for their lack of foresight, inability to get along with each other, ignorance of the bounds of their job and (both of them) for their big mouths.

That pains me to say/type, because they are (in tandem and separately) the best GM, Manager and combination GM/Manager the Chicago White Sox have ever had.

Pleasure

I have not written a blog for months. I have gone from agony to ecstasy to 'oh-my-God-I-have-no-finger-nails-left' to 'whoop-their-ass!' from April to May to June to July to now, August 12th.

Turns out I have been ALMOST right.
The Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays are punching each other in the AL East.

The Twins and White Sox are TIED as of tonight with identical records [64-50 EACH). I hope Gavin Floyd destroys the Twins beyond recognition forever tomorrow/[today].

The Rangers are well in front of the LA/A Angels, so I conceded: Jason Czyk: you were right. The Angels will not win the AL West in 2010. The Texas Rangers will.

The National League.....does anyone care? Really, the biggest markets that matter are all AL..(New York, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles County and Tampa, Florida have the highest viewership). Okay, I'll give you Atlanta (crushed by Chicago AL in Late June), St. Louis (luckiest WS winner EVER) and San Diego. Do you have anyone that scares me?

No. The Yankees, Rays, White Sox/Twins and Rangers......one of those 4/(or 5) will win the WS this year. Game 5 may be in a National League park, but the American League will win.

I. Love. Baseball. This time of year.

-ADH.

After a long nap...

I'm going to have to change some of my preseason predictions. I'm not so sure about Seattle anymore, for a few reasons. I've changed my mind about the Cubs, and something in the AL Central just doesn't feel right. One of those three teams is going to fall flat fast and hard. I just don't know who. I'm sticking with my thoughts on the Nats, with room for a real step forward.

Well, I'm still sticking with my AL East picks. I think the Rays can just come out swinging this year, and I'm looking forward to it.

Over in the NL, the Braves might end up better than I thought. Heyward is supposed to be The Thing, and really, more of these similar stories have succeeded than failed. I speak of other can't misses like Evan Longoria and Joe Mauer. I've been subject to a lot of the Stephen Strausburg kool-aid here in the District, and I've let his numbers do the talking. They would indicate he's going to be close to the predictions. He's got the stuff, now can he learn where/how to throw it? The Mets...I'm not impressed with Jason Bay and David Wright's gotta hit the ball out of the park. The Phillies look impressive even without a closer. They have the best 1stman in the division, one of the 5 best players in MLB at second, J-Roll is an All-Star, Polanco is an upgrade over Felix, Ibanez still has something in left, Victorino is just fun and Jason Worth wasn't a fluke last year. Though I don't think the pitching staff as a whole is dominant, it certainly is top heavy: Halladay is Halladay, Hamels is reportedly healthy and the lil' ones have some promise. But lil' ones have been known to disappoint, as well. Atlanta is better than I thought and is a wild card. As are the Marlins (I said last year they were over due and they underachieved. Be aware).

I'm least certain about the NL Central. Other than the Pirates (who knows what direction they're going) and the Astros (clearly going backward), any team could win that division. Or suck. Hard. The Brew Crew will beat you (I like Fielder and love Braun) but they have to, with a 'meh' inspiring rotation. St. Louis has the game's best player and a really nice back up (Pujols & Holliday) and yes, Wainwright and Carpenter dominated last year, but I know for a fact Chris Carpenter will get hurt. I don't know for how long, but he will be on the DL at some point. He always is. The Cardinals have no closer (cause Franklin won't be gettin' the job done). Some of their better players (like catcher Yadir Molina) are already ouchie. And they don't really have back ups. Not good, but they are a talented team.

The Cubs will bounce back, I just don't know how much. Or, given that they have NO ONE in the bullpen, they could suck suck suck to high heaven. I know that 2011 will be a disaster, but 2010 could just be an epic failure. They'll def be better without Milton Bradley, however. The Reds need for the manager not to be Dusty Baker, which is hard for him, given that the manager of the Reds is Dusty Baker. He has a history of burning out young, talented arms and that's exactly what he's got now in Cinncy. I'd pick them if they had a different manager.

I'm good with what I said about the NL West. The AL West, however...ugh. Milton won't be the sole cause of Seattle's failure, but he will play a role. Lee is hurt (and facing a suspension for some beanball stupidity), they still don't have a rotation other than Lee and King Hernandez. They have 2 of the best table setters in baseball, but who is going to get Ichiro and Figgens from 2nd and 3rd to home? Bradley (even when behaving) isn't a power hitter. Never has been. Griffey is done. Kotchman's OPS is only in the .770s. Lopez can bop a bit, but he's your only real power threat. And then, of course, there's the problem of Milton's personality.

Look, Milton, I get it. Wrigley smells and is cramped. But dude, seriously, you're not Kanye West. Kanye, though a jackass, isn't kicked out of places over and over and over. And actually does make really good music. You've played for 8 teams in 11 years, 7 in the last 8. That's beyond insane. You have the lives of a cat. And stop accusing Cubs fans of being racist. If you say you got racist hate mail, then you give it to the PR department of that team immediately. You keep a copy and give it to the local press if the team does nothing. You have proof. The Mariners a few years ago had a fractured clubhouse, and they brought in Griffey to help fix it. He fixed Ichiro, but Ichiro is a transcendent talent who TAKES THE FIELD EVERYDAY. Milton is always broken. So it's a vicious cycle. And it's already started in Seattle: two games in a row, Milton Bradley was ejected from a spring training game. His manager defended him. But here we go again...

Any of the four teams in the West could win. Texas, like the Braves, will be better than I thought. I forgot how much better they were last year, and their pitching is getting towards average, which for them is amazing. A lot of injury questions (Kinsler, Hamilton, Gurerro, etc) and some other legal questions (Hamilton, the manager Ron Washington [hint: sniff sniff]), but a talented team that picks the ball defensively. A's are always a sleeper team. Even in years when they end up sucking. Angels are still headed by the brilliant Mike Socia and have smart run front office.

And there's still a lot to like about Seattle. Ugh...I'll play it safe, and change officially from the Mariners to the Angels.

And now....the meat and potatoes. My favorite division: The AL Central.

Uuuuuhhhhhhggggggghhh......

Mediocre, middling, muddled, bad and worse.

That's the adjectives, in order, used to describe each of the five teams in this division. Minnesota is mediocre, Chicago is middling, the Tigers are muddled, the Indians are bad and the Royals are worse. You've gotta love the Twins top half of the order. Span, Hudson, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel/Thome/ is almost elite level. You've got some holes, and not having Joe Nathan isn't a death blow, but does hurt and has a psychological effect. And even if Liriano succeeds in the role as a closer, you've still created a hole in your already thin and mild rotation. And there is an immeasurable mental loss. Nathan was particularly good against the division.

Chicago...one can see good to great things from the starting rotation, and even a lot of promise in the bullpen is people stay in one piece. That starting 4-some (Peavy, Buerhle, Floyd & Danks CAN match up with anyone's in baseball) and the bullpen guys all have decent track records. Could be something really special. And it needs to be, because the line up (and in particular Ozzie's new bizarre philosophies) is uninspiring at best. Carlos Quentin should be closer to his MVP form, Gordon Beckham should put up some very nice numbers, Alex Rios can't possibly be as bad as he was, and Konerko is Konerko, but I hate Juan Pierre. And this DH stuff is just a joke. It's absolute baseball stupidity. Andruw Jones is your DH, or at least he damn well better be until you can trade for an honest-to-goodness thumper (gimmie big ol' Adam Dunn out there as the DH swattin' away). Mark Kotsay as your three hitter? Omar Vizquel as lead-off AND DH?!!? Are you insane? If this team stumbles (or rather can't score runs) then Ozzie should be fired. And yes, I'm an Ozzie guy (I follow him on twitter) and I like Ozzie and think he's a good manager, but this is just stupid. This division is winable, and with that starting staff, thoughts of the World Series aren't crazy. But you are giving up runs with this offensive structure in this division and in this league. You play in an incredible hitters park. Use it. Your 'grindy, scrappy' 2005 team still hit over 200 home runs. You gotta bop the ball, Ozzie.

Detroit will either be really good or really bad. And if they're really good, I think they'll be really good for the first half and then slowly sink in the 2nd. Cabrera is the real deal and the old guys still have some life in 'em, but there will be a slow down in the second half. Verlander is the best individual starter in the division though (doesn't mean he can't be beat, either).

Cleveland is bad and Kansas City....what are you doing? You have totally abandoned the concept of on base percentage with this lineup. Podsednik, Gordon, Kendall, Ankiel, Guillen, Getz, Dejesus, Anderson, Fields....what is the matter with you? Zack Grienke, oh that's somethin' fierce and the closer is legit too. But there's nothing in between but bad road.

I think I'm going to go with the Twins, and I hate myself for it. Forgive me...

I. Am. Ready.

The snow is burying Washington, D.C. But it doesn't matter. Baseball is back. Very, very, quickly, I'm going to give my predictions for the division winners.

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
AL West: Seattle Mariners
Al Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays

NL East: Phillies (Duh)
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: San Francisco Giants
NL Wild Card: Florida Marlins

Yes. The Rays are due for a bounceback. The Cubs too. The Giants, you can't beat their top two starters. The Phillies just pound you. The Mariners have a drop off in their rotation from the first two, but you can find a starter and they don't make errors. The Yankees are just stacked. The Marlins are due for one of their characteristic runs (having a dominant starter and arguably the best position player in baseball doesn't hurt either). The White Sox starting staff is one of the three best on the face of the planet. Period. I don't know why people refuse to believe Gavin Floyd is good, or think that Jon Danks is older than he is (HE'S 24, DOPES!!!!).

Boston and Chicago (AL) actually are both similarly built teams: they've traded some power for defense (allegedly in the case of Chicago [I don't really buy into Mark Teahen at all] around killer starting staffs. Chicago has less injury questions, and plays in a far, far, far, far, far, far weaker division. I think Boston will be on the outs looking in at their gray and blue rivals in the Bronx and St. Petersburg. Atlanta: last year was a fluke. St. Louis: Carpenter is going to get hurt. He will. Ryan Franklin sucked at the end of the season. They have nothing other than Pujols & Holiday. The Mets are a disaster. Washington can shoot for .500 this year (it's not totally crazy, either). Milwaukee? Nope. That team is two guys and nothing else. Pittsburg? Kansas City? Oh, please.

The only real tentative one I had to leave out was Colorado. Last year wasn't a fluke. That team is built nicely, and unlike the Giants, they have both pitching and hitting. The Giants have Kung-Fu Panda, but nothing else offensively. I think Lincecum is so dominant as to give them an edge (because you know they'll give him the ball down the stretch and that guy is BALLER!!!!!). We'll see how I do!!!