2011 Season Preview Part 1

We are less than a week away from the 2nd most beautiful day of the year: Pitcher and Catchers reporting. Yes. Going to start with the NL East this week.
I think I’ve seen enough roster turnover to start making my predications for the coming year (as I’ve already sort of done and as last year’s column shows, I’ve got an okay track record. I admit to underselling the Reds (a tad) and the Rangers, but that’s okay. I said the Giants would win and raise your hand if you thought the Reds would even be good. I was (regrettably) correct about the White Sox, Twins and the mess called the AL East. I don’t know what I was thinking when I picked the Cubs to win the division, though.

AL East: Boston
AL Central: Chicago
AL West: Oakland
AL Wildcard: Yankees

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL Wildcard: Rockies


In the National League East, everyone knows what the Phillies have done. They signed Cliff Lee, who dominated the New York Yankees for them in the 2009 World Series and was yet again very good for the 2010 Texas Rangers in the World Series. While both the Yankees and Rangers offered Lee more money and more years (okay, one more year) than the Phillies, Lee wanted to go someplace that he loved and felt had the best chance to win (only difference between him and LeBron is that he didn’t do it on national TV).
The Phillies starting rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton (at least, that’s how they should line up) are the best in the national league. But two are injury concerns while also being inconsistent and if rest of the team on the field is injury prone (Polanco, Utley, Howard, Rollins and Ibanez have all spent time on the DL in the past two season). Every one of the most important players on the team is the wrong side of 30 [that is, over it]. Don’t get me wrong – I like the Phillies and think they have a really good roster. On paper. But I also have them as Team A on my list of ‘most likely to crash and burn’ list (Team B would be the Boston Red Sox for much the same reason – injury potential).
The Atlanta Braves stepped up this offseason and traded for Marlins slugger Dan Uggla who will make the team better with his bat. He’s an awful defensive player (that was him in the 2008 All-Star Game), but for now his offense is enough to help the Braves who can count on growth from another batch of home grown starters and wunderkid Jason Heyward (on the short list of, “Oh my God!!!” players in baseball) [as you can tell, I have a lot of baseball lists….]. Freddy Gonzalez is no Bobby Cox, but since Cox is one of the greatest managers to ever walk the face of the earth, he doesn’t need to be. The Braves improved their roster from a year ago when they made the playoffs over the Padres and should enjoy another wildcard this year.
I’ve been predicting a Marlins run for the last 4 years now, and am going to stop. Hanley Ramirez is on the same list as Heyward, Mike Stanton was rumored to be talked about in exchange for White Sox Manager Ozzie Guillen and Gabby Sanchez is probably for real. But no, I refuse to let the Marlins be a cruel mistress to me again. They are a talented roster with a cheap-as-Scrooge owner and a shrewd front office. I’ll give them 88-90 wins, but no playoffs. The Mets still have David Wright, so they have a pretty face on the field. But oh boy….is there a whole lot of badness in Queens otherwise. Johan is breaky, there’s no one else in the rotation (the Chris Young signing isn’t bad though) and the bullpen is a mess. Plus, you know, they are the Mets. So, good luck with that.
As for my actual favorite NL team, things are looking up. Yes, they gave out the winter’s worst contract (7 years, $126 million for Jayson Werth) after totally screwing up at the trade deadline and not trading Adam Dunn, but the future in Washington looks good (think 2012/13). Bryce Harper will be up and slugging at a corner outfield spot (I’m thinking left), Stephen Strasberg (who was just damn brilliant before his arm got hurt) will be back, plus they’ll have other top draft picks coming out of the pipeline and a healthy Ryan Zimmerman (criminally underrated) and Jayson Werth (a really, really good player, just not for 7 years and $126 million) around. Just won’t be a pretty 2011. But get ready America….the Nationals wont’ be a laughing stock forever.

Here we go...And some background...

I love the game of baseball. I have had a strong affair with it for the last 4 years. Before that, it was a little crush, but in 2005, my love exploded. 2005 was the year the Chicago White Sox won the World Series.
Now, I will not abide by accusations of band-wagon hopping; I was a White Sox fan well before that magical summer, I just did not have the same appreciation for the game before that summer that I have had ever since. Yes, without question, the White Sox are my favorite team. I truly (and lamely) am in a better mood when they win than when they lose, regardless of what else has happened to me. I like to think that I'm a smarter baseball fan the more I watch the game, and have helped pass my time this summer by reading several books that examine the game and its evolving statistics (Moneyball is, for those interested, a great way to start, even though Billy Beane (despite his baseball acumen) is completely arrogant).
Baseball is a game unlike any other in the world. It's numbers (162, 755 [more on that one later], 2632) all mean something to fans all around the country (and increasingly, the world). It both proceeds and follows the history of the United States [a quick note, all statistics are courtesy of either baseballreference.com or mlb.com, unless otherwise noted]. And baseball fandom is not a uniquly Untied States phenomenon. Baseball passion runs hot in Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, Japan, China, Canada and Mexico. I hope that my love for the game, and the love that millions of people around the world have, will come through in this blog, but I will not be a meatball fan. While I don't totally (emphasis on 'totally') discount the idea of momentum and 'intangable' skills, as Vin Scully once said on WSCR's 670 The Score (a wonderful Chicago-area sports talk station), "Momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher."
Follow along, comment, argue, be passionate about your teams and favorite players, but a word of warning: I will NOT tolerate any homophobia in comments or responses. Too easy is it to resort to the "You have that opinion and that makes you gay!" (read: stupid) response. In the words of Mike Singletary: cannot play with 'em. Can't do it. I won't put up with homophobia, so leave it at home (or for that matter racism, etc). Other than that, hope that I do this well and that you enjoy!