Pleasure

I have not written a blog for months. I have gone from agony to ecstasy to 'oh-my-God-I-have-no-finger-nails-left' to 'whoop-their-ass!' from April to May to June to July to now, August 12th.

Turns out I have been ALMOST right.
The Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays are punching each other in the AL East.

The Twins and White Sox are TIED as of tonight with identical records [64-50 EACH). I hope Gavin Floyd destroys the Twins beyond recognition forever tomorrow/[today].

The Rangers are well in front of the LA/A Angels, so I conceded: Jason Czyk: you were right. The Angels will not win the AL West in 2010. The Texas Rangers will.

The National League.....does anyone care? Really, the biggest markets that matter are all AL..(New York, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles County and Tampa, Florida have the highest viewership). Okay, I'll give you Atlanta (crushed by Chicago AL in Late June), St. Louis (luckiest WS winner EVER) and San Diego. Do you have anyone that scares me?

No. The Yankees, Rays, White Sox/Twins and Rangers......one of those 4/(or 5) will win the WS this year. Game 5 may be in a National League park, but the American League will win.

I. Love. Baseball. This time of year.

-ADH.

After a long nap...

I'm going to have to change some of my preseason predictions. I'm not so sure about Seattle anymore, for a few reasons. I've changed my mind about the Cubs, and something in the AL Central just doesn't feel right. One of those three teams is going to fall flat fast and hard. I just don't know who. I'm sticking with my thoughts on the Nats, with room for a real step forward.

Well, I'm still sticking with my AL East picks. I think the Rays can just come out swinging this year, and I'm looking forward to it.

Over in the NL, the Braves might end up better than I thought. Heyward is supposed to be The Thing, and really, more of these similar stories have succeeded than failed. I speak of other can't misses like Evan Longoria and Joe Mauer. I've been subject to a lot of the Stephen Strausburg kool-aid here in the District, and I've let his numbers do the talking. They would indicate he's going to be close to the predictions. He's got the stuff, now can he learn where/how to throw it? The Mets...I'm not impressed with Jason Bay and David Wright's gotta hit the ball out of the park. The Phillies look impressive even without a closer. They have the best 1stman in the division, one of the 5 best players in MLB at second, J-Roll is an All-Star, Polanco is an upgrade over Felix, Ibanez still has something in left, Victorino is just fun and Jason Worth wasn't a fluke last year. Though I don't think the pitching staff as a whole is dominant, it certainly is top heavy: Halladay is Halladay, Hamels is reportedly healthy and the lil' ones have some promise. But lil' ones have been known to disappoint, as well. Atlanta is better than I thought and is a wild card. As are the Marlins (I said last year they were over due and they underachieved. Be aware).

I'm least certain about the NL Central. Other than the Pirates (who knows what direction they're going) and the Astros (clearly going backward), any team could win that division. Or suck. Hard. The Brew Crew will beat you (I like Fielder and love Braun) but they have to, with a 'meh' inspiring rotation. St. Louis has the game's best player and a really nice back up (Pujols & Holliday) and yes, Wainwright and Carpenter dominated last year, but I know for a fact Chris Carpenter will get hurt. I don't know for how long, but he will be on the DL at some point. He always is. The Cardinals have no closer (cause Franklin won't be gettin' the job done). Some of their better players (like catcher Yadir Molina) are already ouchie. And they don't really have back ups. Not good, but they are a talented team.

The Cubs will bounce back, I just don't know how much. Or, given that they have NO ONE in the bullpen, they could suck suck suck to high heaven. I know that 2011 will be a disaster, but 2010 could just be an epic failure. They'll def be better without Milton Bradley, however. The Reds need for the manager not to be Dusty Baker, which is hard for him, given that the manager of the Reds is Dusty Baker. He has a history of burning out young, talented arms and that's exactly what he's got now in Cinncy. I'd pick them if they had a different manager.

I'm good with what I said about the NL West. The AL West, however...ugh. Milton won't be the sole cause of Seattle's failure, but he will play a role. Lee is hurt (and facing a suspension for some beanball stupidity), they still don't have a rotation other than Lee and King Hernandez. They have 2 of the best table setters in baseball, but who is going to get Ichiro and Figgens from 2nd and 3rd to home? Bradley (even when behaving) isn't a power hitter. Never has been. Griffey is done. Kotchman's OPS is only in the .770s. Lopez can bop a bit, but he's your only real power threat. And then, of course, there's the problem of Milton's personality.

Look, Milton, I get it. Wrigley smells and is cramped. But dude, seriously, you're not Kanye West. Kanye, though a jackass, isn't kicked out of places over and over and over. And actually does make really good music. You've played for 8 teams in 11 years, 7 in the last 8. That's beyond insane. You have the lives of a cat. And stop accusing Cubs fans of being racist. If you say you got racist hate mail, then you give it to the PR department of that team immediately. You keep a copy and give it to the local press if the team does nothing. You have proof. The Mariners a few years ago had a fractured clubhouse, and they brought in Griffey to help fix it. He fixed Ichiro, but Ichiro is a transcendent talent who TAKES THE FIELD EVERYDAY. Milton is always broken. So it's a vicious cycle. And it's already started in Seattle: two games in a row, Milton Bradley was ejected from a spring training game. His manager defended him. But here we go again...

Any of the four teams in the West could win. Texas, like the Braves, will be better than I thought. I forgot how much better they were last year, and their pitching is getting towards average, which for them is amazing. A lot of injury questions (Kinsler, Hamilton, Gurerro, etc) and some other legal questions (Hamilton, the manager Ron Washington [hint: sniff sniff]), but a talented team that picks the ball defensively. A's are always a sleeper team. Even in years when they end up sucking. Angels are still headed by the brilliant Mike Socia and have smart run front office.

And there's still a lot to like about Seattle. Ugh...I'll play it safe, and change officially from the Mariners to the Angels.

And now....the meat and potatoes. My favorite division: The AL Central.

Uuuuuhhhhhhggggggghhh......

Mediocre, middling, muddled, bad and worse.

That's the adjectives, in order, used to describe each of the five teams in this division. Minnesota is mediocre, Chicago is middling, the Tigers are muddled, the Indians are bad and the Royals are worse. You've gotta love the Twins top half of the order. Span, Hudson, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel/Thome/ is almost elite level. You've got some holes, and not having Joe Nathan isn't a death blow, but does hurt and has a psychological effect. And even if Liriano succeeds in the role as a closer, you've still created a hole in your already thin and mild rotation. And there is an immeasurable mental loss. Nathan was particularly good against the division.

Chicago...one can see good to great things from the starting rotation, and even a lot of promise in the bullpen is people stay in one piece. That starting 4-some (Peavy, Buerhle, Floyd & Danks CAN match up with anyone's in baseball) and the bullpen guys all have decent track records. Could be something really special. And it needs to be, because the line up (and in particular Ozzie's new bizarre philosophies) is uninspiring at best. Carlos Quentin should be closer to his MVP form, Gordon Beckham should put up some very nice numbers, Alex Rios can't possibly be as bad as he was, and Konerko is Konerko, but I hate Juan Pierre. And this DH stuff is just a joke. It's absolute baseball stupidity. Andruw Jones is your DH, or at least he damn well better be until you can trade for an honest-to-goodness thumper (gimmie big ol' Adam Dunn out there as the DH swattin' away). Mark Kotsay as your three hitter? Omar Vizquel as lead-off AND DH?!!? Are you insane? If this team stumbles (or rather can't score runs) then Ozzie should be fired. And yes, I'm an Ozzie guy (I follow him on twitter) and I like Ozzie and think he's a good manager, but this is just stupid. This division is winable, and with that starting staff, thoughts of the World Series aren't crazy. But you are giving up runs with this offensive structure in this division and in this league. You play in an incredible hitters park. Use it. Your 'grindy, scrappy' 2005 team still hit over 200 home runs. You gotta bop the ball, Ozzie.

Detroit will either be really good or really bad. And if they're really good, I think they'll be really good for the first half and then slowly sink in the 2nd. Cabrera is the real deal and the old guys still have some life in 'em, but there will be a slow down in the second half. Verlander is the best individual starter in the division though (doesn't mean he can't be beat, either).

Cleveland is bad and Kansas City....what are you doing? You have totally abandoned the concept of on base percentage with this lineup. Podsednik, Gordon, Kendall, Ankiel, Guillen, Getz, Dejesus, Anderson, Fields....what is the matter with you? Zack Grienke, oh that's somethin' fierce and the closer is legit too. But there's nothing in between but bad road.

I think I'm going to go with the Twins, and I hate myself for it. Forgive me...

I. Am. Ready.

The snow is burying Washington, D.C. But it doesn't matter. Baseball is back. Very, very, quickly, I'm going to give my predictions for the division winners.

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
AL West: Seattle Mariners
Al Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays

NL East: Phillies (Duh)
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: San Francisco Giants
NL Wild Card: Florida Marlins

Yes. The Rays are due for a bounceback. The Cubs too. The Giants, you can't beat their top two starters. The Phillies just pound you. The Mariners have a drop off in their rotation from the first two, but you can find a starter and they don't make errors. The Yankees are just stacked. The Marlins are due for one of their characteristic runs (having a dominant starter and arguably the best position player in baseball doesn't hurt either). The White Sox starting staff is one of the three best on the face of the planet. Period. I don't know why people refuse to believe Gavin Floyd is good, or think that Jon Danks is older than he is (HE'S 24, DOPES!!!!).

Boston and Chicago (AL) actually are both similarly built teams: they've traded some power for defense (allegedly in the case of Chicago [I don't really buy into Mark Teahen at all] around killer starting staffs. Chicago has less injury questions, and plays in a far, far, far, far, far, far weaker division. I think Boston will be on the outs looking in at their gray and blue rivals in the Bronx and St. Petersburg. Atlanta: last year was a fluke. St. Louis: Carpenter is going to get hurt. He will. Ryan Franklin sucked at the end of the season. They have nothing other than Pujols & Holiday. The Mets are a disaster. Washington can shoot for .500 this year (it's not totally crazy, either). Milwaukee? Nope. That team is two guys and nothing else. Pittsburg? Kansas City? Oh, please.

The only real tentative one I had to leave out was Colorado. Last year wasn't a fluke. That team is built nicely, and unlike the Giants, they have both pitching and hitting. The Giants have Kung-Fu Panda, but nothing else offensively. I think Lincecum is so dominant as to give them an edge (because you know they'll give him the ball down the stretch and that guy is BALLER!!!!!). We'll see how I do!!!

A boring winter....

Okay, so the White Sox are trying to put together the 2002 All-Star Team, the Tigers kick their fans in the rocks (because their GM is bad at his job), the Yankees are just pullin' it out on people, the Red Sox have no direction, the Angels and Mariners are trading players and the National League is just kind of standing still.

Jason Bay is going to get paid, but it looks like Boston is going the smart thing and let Jason Bay walk (really, he ain't that good, can't field his position at all). It wouldn't surprise me to see them sign Matt Holiday, but they (and the Angels) are reportedly really unhappy with Scott Boras, for the same reason. Mark Teixeira and the way Boras kicked them both in the rocks this time last year.

I was honestly puzzled by the Mariners signing of Figgins for a few reasons.
1) I can't believe Figgins didn't get at least $10 mill per.
2) I understand that Seattle plans to bat him 2nd (giving them a hell of a 1-2 punch), but where are they going to play him (3rd? 2nd? Left?)
3) Didn't Seattle learn its lesson from the last time they signed an LA-area 3rdbaseman coming off a career year, or not?

The Tigers....eeeeesh. I told Tiger fans that the Willis/Bonderman/Robertson/Maggs/Guillen contracts were going to come back to hurt. And they have....big time. Granderson was the Tigers second best player, the face of the franchise and signed to a really really club friendly contract. The Yankees probably just locked up the AL East again, so good luck to the Rays next year (I wouldn't piss on Fenway Park if it were on fire to put it out, so I hope Boston doesn't do a damn thing this offseason).

The White Sox....they're all over the map. Who knows? Hideki Matsui? Coco Crisp? JJ Putz? I'm good. For God sakes Kenny, GO GET ADRIAN GONZALEZ. Or at least Dan Uggla. Or at minimum, Brent Gardner. Blegh. I might start calling for him to be removed as White Sox GM if the Sox don't win the division this year.

Nothing truly interesting has happened yet, so I'm waiting just like you people!! I'll keep this up!

A long winter ahead....

(Smile)

A bottle of Merlot, a new Lady GaGa video and my baseball blog...(wow, I need a boyfriend).

So, I said Yankees in 6 or 7, and it ended up being Yankees in 6. Yay! We now move on to the realm of the offseason, which in some ways (well, not really) is more fun than the actual season. You have the free agent market, the trade market and the bevy of offseason awards. I'm not even going to try to predict those (well, Pujols & Mauer in MVP, Lincecum & Grienke in Cy Young).

It's very difficult to try and predict the trade market, several teams clearly have needs (Rays = closer, White Sox in left field, Yankees in rotation, Cubs with Milton Bradley, etc), but you can't say, "I think this guy will be traded here for this unknown minor leaguer" and maintain sanity, so I won't really try. Nor will I really try to project out the deals the major free agents will get (although I have, lol), and rest assured I'll chime in with ideas on major trades/signings and starting in about February, I'll make my division predictions.

Congrats to the Yankees, and good luck repeating next year, I already have thoughts on how the AL will break down ;-)

World Series blog

Well, well, well.

(Big ol' smile).

Look who was right: ME!!!

The coming world series match-up between the New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies not only reinforces my own sense of baseball smugness (which took a real hit during my regular season predictions), but promises (on paper) to be a real interesting match up.

Both teams can beat you to death, offensively. Rollins, Jimmy is only hitting .227, but Jeter, Derek is hitting .259. Both A-Rod and Ryan Howard are just punishing opposing pitchers, but other than Jason Werth of the Phils, none of the other big boppers have done a ton of damage.

The Yankees starting pitching has been fantastic, but other than Hammels, the Phillies don't really go for wanting either.

Brad Lidge has been getting the job done this postseason, just not as pretty as Mo has.

All of the 'battle-tested' arguments for the Yankees go out of the window because the Phillies WON the whole thing last year. This is going to come down to who plays better baseball. The Phillies do, however, have the better manager.

If I'm said better manager, Charlie Manuel, then there's no way I start Cole Hammels in Game 2. I use him at home in Game 3. I go to Pedro and ask him to scrap out whatever he has left to go against the Yankees in Game 2. The Phillies have to win at least one of the first two games in Yankee Stadium. Well, have to is a really strong phrase, but if they can split the first two games, they're in a much better situation than if they go down 0-2. AJ Burnett is certainly beatable, especially if Pedro can give you anything like what he did in the NLCS. Unlike Hammels, Pedro has played the Yankees on a huge stage before. He knows how to pitch to Jeter, Matsui, Posada and A-Rod. In a hostile environment. Cole just hasn't been good enough to justify starting in Game 2 in Yankee Stadium. He's a better bet in Game 3 at home, where you at least get to take away one of the Yankee weapons by forcing Andy Petite to bat in the lineup. Plus, you have a (slightly) better chance at getting Damon/Cano out, and you force Tiexiera to his less strong side (notice there I didn't say 'weak side').

I haven't really talked about Game 1 yet for a reason. As much as I like Cliff Lee (I think he's good at baseball and cute, which has gotten me into trouble in two very different circles of friends I have) and as good/great as he's been for the Phillies, he is not as good as his ex-Indian teammate CC Sabathia. The numbers show that, as does the eye test.

[By the way....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA towards the Indians. In back-to-back years you traded away Cy Young winners, who now are going head to head in the World Series. Mark Shapiro: any time you want to give the 2005 Executive of the Year Award to the guy who really deserved it that year, Kenny Williams, feel free. Dude, the only reason people think (THINK) you're good at your job is because of that trade you made with Montreal (Bartolo Colon for Lee, Brandon Philips & Grady Sizemore). Well, Montreal thought they were going to be contracted, you gave up on Philips (how'd that work out for you?), Grady's now hurt and Lee is gone. Plus, you've had two absolute flop teams the last 2 seasons after a huge choke job against the Red Sox in 2007. Shapiro....no flags!!!!]

Lee is, however, the Phillies best pitcher, and does actually give them a pretty decent shot to win Game 1. I have been amazed at how good Sabathia's been this post-season, given how terrible he was in the past with Cleveland and Milwaukee. It was most likely small sample size (the overall biggest problem with the playoffs), but I also believe that if one team can get to CC, it's the Phillies (although 'getting to' CC might only mean 3 runs the way he's thrown this post season).

My World Series record is pretty even keeled this decade...didn't know baseball well enough in 00 or 01 to make a pick, didn't care in 02, thought the Marlins had a shot in 03 but picked the Yankees, knew the Red Sox would do it in 04, picked the White Sox in 05, picked the Tigers in 06 but rooted Cardinals, picked the Rockies in 07 and actually called Phillies in 5 last year. The short of it is I don't know: I think these were the two best teams in baseball this year, so this should be an entertaining World Series between two pretty evenly matched teams. Though I don't like it (because of my reasons, not because of the pick) I'm going to go with the Yankees, but I think it'll take 6 or 7 games to do it. I'm actually rooting for the Phillies, not because I dislike the Yankees (I actually like them a lot, minus Nick Swisher), but because I really like the Phillies. The Flyin' Hawaiian...Big Bad Ryan Howard, Chase Utley...that team is just fun, lol. Should be good, but anything can happen.

So far, so good!

Well, here we are pushing into the middle of October and yet again we have terrible weather in which to play baseball in! (2009 wants to be 2008 sooooo hard! [Think about it...another terrible Flo-Rida song dominates the charts in January/February, Britney comes out of no where with a chart topper, the White Sox are mediocre to bad at baseball, fall weather sucks, Obama is all over the news (but this time it's not good) and the Phillies and Dodgers are playing in the ALCS].

Bud Selig really should fix this timing problem, but he won't, in part because he can't. Believe you me, I very much dislike Pud Selig (as I call him), because I think he has allowed the Steroid Era to blossom, I think inter-league play is a fun but pointless exercise and all he does is dither about making a decision. You, Mr. Selig, are the damn commissioner of the game. You are appointed for life. You made $18 MILLION last year (behind only A-Rod and Jeter in-terms of baseball salary). You can do whatever you want to the game.

If the players' union truly stopped you from testing all the players for illegal (the U.S. government said they were illegal, regardless of baseball, so Bonds, Sosa, Ramirez, Clemens, Palmero, et al, should all be IN PRISON), then you grab as many microphones as you can, as many cameras and as many webcams, you line 'em all up and say, "I love the game of baseball. I know there are players violating the rules and tainting this game and its numerous hallowed records, I won't stand for it, I am trying to fix it but this union is standing in my way. Help me fix this game by pressuring the union!"

But he didn't do that. CONGRESS had to step in (BIG ups to the House for passing the Matthew Shepard Act, by the way. Kudos. RIP, Shepard) before he did anything. Idiot.

And now we have this weather thing. Baseball cannot be fairly played in 30 degree weather while its raining. It's just not the same game, period. Cutting inter-league play would help shorten the season by at least 2 weeks, meaning that by now we'd be in the middle of the World Series, instead of it being (at least) 10 days away, with the weather only being worse in New York or Philly, unless both LA teams win (more on that later. Like, 'right-now' later).

Speaking of which...my prediction can still come true...the Yankees and the Phillies are both still alive!!! I'm planning on doing a separate WS blog when the teams are all set, but I have the Yankees in 7 over the Angles and the Phillies in 6 over LA (sorry, Kathryn).

In regards to the free agent market this off-season...you've got 4 players and a lot of...well, not-good players out there. The top contracts should go to (in order):
Matt Holiday
John Lackey
Chone Figgins*
Jason Bay


*Although I want to see how much of an effect Bobby Abreu had on him (see the SI piece today [http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/10/15/abreu.angels/index.html].

To me, the trade market is far more interesting, given that the Rays are going to put 2 of their 3 starting outfielders at least out there (Crawford & Upton) and I think are going to try hard to trade BJ Upton. The Rays have reportedly lost faith in Upton's abilities and work ethic (come on Kenny, that's right in your wheel house; a failed first-round talent with work ethic problems [cough, Alex Rios, cough]) and the Marlins are for certain going to trade Dan Uggla (no way they pay him again next year, not after he again hit 30 and 90, while again increasing his walk total AND made $8 mill in 2009).

He's the real guy I want Kenny Williams, GM of the White Sox, to get. One, Dan Uggla's hot. I said it. I'll stand by it. He's also really good at baseball, despite his defensive woes. This year he had a 2.4 WAR value, and wacked out 30 homers despite playing in a huge park with no real protection in the lineup (well, a caveat, Hanley Ramirez is pretty good protection) and is just damn hot. His walk total has gone from 68 to 77 to 91 over the last 3 years and in the AL, especially for a team that has no DH, you don't have to worry about the fielding issues. He can at least somewhat competently play the position (as shown by his 1.2 UZR in the field in 2008) sometimes, and though he's not a real fast guy, can at least steal a base or two, much more than Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, Paul Konerko or Carl Everette could as White Sox DH's.

I love the pickle the Twins are in (AND BY THE WAY, BASEBALL IDIOTS, how did that whole Nick-Punto-&-Carlos-Gomez-are-grinders-and-that's-why-the-Twins-win thing go against the Yankees?!!!?!?! Hahahahahahaha...grindie just means bad at baseball with athletic talent. Both those players made HUGE base-running mistakes which cost the Twins dearly, and I enjoyed it thoroughly, that ass-whoopin). They have that nice, new, open-air park coming next season (how much fun is that going to be in April in Minneapolis?!) and should have some nice new revenue coming in. Why does this make me, an avid Twins hatter, happy?

Because, ladies and gentleman, the Twins are going to have to pay home-town hero Joe Mauer very, very soon. And he's going to get A-Rod money (the 2nd contract, not the first [$275 mill guaranteed vs. $252 million guaranteed {WHY AREN'T I GOOD AT BASEBALL?!!?}]). Or at least Jeter money. The fact is, other than Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer is the best baseball player on earth. One could argue he's better than Pujols, given the position he plays and his additional duties with the pitching staff (I might be persuaded, after a strong drink or two, to make that argument myself, actually).

This year (2009) Joe Mauer led the American League in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. As a full-time catcher. Now, go back and read that again. He won his 3rd (THREE!!!) batting title. As a full-time catcher. He is the first catcher in the history of the AL to win 3 batting titles. He is....phenomenal at baseball, and I swear that's not a pun about my blog title. His WAR this year was over 8. The Twins are not good without him, at all. Period. He's your AL MVP. Jeter is second, Ben Zobrist, of the Rays, is third. That's it. Not Mark Tiexiera. Mauer.

The Twins have to pay him. A lot. Real soon. Okay, you say, they've got an additional $40 million a year coming in for the next 4 years with this new stadium. That should do it, right? Well, not so fast. Because, you see, the Twins have 3 other really good players who also need to be paid. Justin Morneau, Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer. Are any of them Mauer good? No, absolutely not. But they are all really, really good. And are going to need to be paid. $160 million (again, divided over 4 years) will not be nearly enough to keep them all. And while Mauer is the biggest cog, you need them all. You need Morneau to get pitchers to pitch to Mauer. You need Cuddyer in case one of them gets hurt (which they both do), and because he keeps pitchers honest with the two of them. You need Nathan because he makes playing the Twins an 8-inning affair. To say nothing of the need of the Twins to develop a starting staff to match the White Sox, and even the Tigers. So, the Twins have some very interesting and difficult decisions ahead. I love it. Either way, one of those 4 won't be in Minnesota for very much longer. I love it.

I think I have long-since exhausted you, the lovely readers, patience with me (although that may have nothing to do with this blog), so for now, I will say,
"Peace and love, peace and love!"

WS blog soon, stay warm.